Sunday, November 05, 2006

Mason Dixon Poll: Michigan- Granholm 52%, DeVos 38%

Updated trend lines courtesy of the mighty Nirmal at Capital Viewpoint! (the blue line is Granholm, the red, DeVos)

Markos likes these Mason-Dixon guys- I think this is the first poll they have done on Michigan this year.

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. of Washington, D.C. from October 31 through November 2, 2006. A total of 625 registered Michigan voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turn-out by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or regional grouping.

Good to know. Some of the reports I had read on MIRS about the EPIC polls seemed to indicate some under-sampling in different areas of the state, and that was making me nervous.

On to the results-

If the 2006 election for Governor were held today, would you vote for:





If the 2006 election for Michigan’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for:





Go the the MSNBC page for the breakdown on the demos. They seem to get a very representative sample.

The Free Press also released a new Selzer & Co. poll with similar numbers.

A surge of support from women gave Gov. Jennifer Granholm a double-digit lead over Republican challenger Dick DeVos in a race for governor that's entered its final 48 hours.

Granholm's overall 54% to 41% lead is fueled by her 26 percentage-point margin among women, according to the Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan Poll. DeVos has a 1 percentage-point margin among men.

The Free Press-Local 4 poll shows Granholm held a 17-point edge among independent voters, who likely will decide the outcome of the race. About 5% in the poll said they were undecided or will choose a minor party candidate.

Granholm had a 21-point lead in metro Detroit, which comprises almost half of the state's voters.

And for Debbie "Stickers" Stabenow-

U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow has surged to a 19 percentage-point lead over Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, according to the Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan poll conducted last week.

The survey, conducted by Selzer & Co. of Iowa, showed 12% of the 532 people surveyed were undecided. Stabenow's lead, in a poll taken Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, is commanding, said J. Ann Selzer, president of the Des Moines, Iowa, polling firm.

"I've been scanning through the cross tabs to see where there's a chance for him and there's really very little promising news for Bouchard," she said.

What does this all mean, besides the fact that I might not have as many nightmares the next two nights?

It means absolutely nothing unless you get out and vote! And get all your friends and neighbors out to vote!

Let us take a lesson from Jim Blanchard, who was just here in town Friday with our blogging Governor.

I am pleased to be joined today by a great leader and a good friend, former Governor Jim Blanchard. He reminded the crowd in G.R. about what happened when people thought he had it in the bag in 1990 – Democrats stayed home…and the other side got the keys to the Capitol. That is why it is so important that we get out the crowds this Tuesday, rain or shine; because every last vote counts.

See? None of this comes true unless you get out there Tuesday!

(P.S.- What's this about HOT Democrats on the west side? I really should get over there more often.)