Thursday, November 15, 2007

It's presidential poll time in Michigan

Hide the kids.


EPIC/MRA is making an honest man out of Ed Sarpolus again, and here are your results on the latest Michigan poll of current presidential contenders. As Rick Albin says, these polls are a "snapshot in time", and your mileage may vary, or something like that.


For the Democrats- the Hillary Machine is stomping the competition.


Clinton is running away from the Democratic field -- even though she and the other Democratic candidates refuse to campaign here, because the state ran afoul of national party rules by scheduling its primary ahead of other states.


She is now is favored by 49 percent of likely Democratic primary voters in Michigan, up from 40 percent in the Sept. 1 survey. Second-place candidate Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, who had 21 percent of the vote in late summer, now stands at a very distant 18 percent. And former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards is stuck in the mid teens -- despite support from union leaders.


And the breakdown by gender-


According to the survey, 60 percent of female voters prefer Clinton with Obama a distant second at 18 percent. Among men, however, Clinton's support drops to 32 percent, still tops in the field. Edwards got 21 percent support among men while Obama received support from 19 percent of the men surveyed.


And for the Republicans, the picture gets a little murky-


Giuliani is favored by 28 percent of likely GOP primary voters -- slightly better than the 25 percent support for Romney, a Michigan native whose father was the state's governor in the 1960s. Both former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and Arizona Sen. John McCain continue to stagnate. Thompson is still third, now at 13 percent, followed by McCain, at 12 percent. That's not good news for either, but it's particularly troublesome for McCain, who won Michigan's 2000 presidential primary, and had hoped to establish a beach head here.


But wait! Here comes Mike Huckabee!


Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee was hardly a blip -- just 3 percent -- in the News/WXYZ poll published Sept. 1. But he's tripled his support since then. And while he's still way behind the leaders, his progress is significant.


An ordained Baptist minister, Huckabee has been running strong in Iowa polls, where he is second behind Romney. Huckabee has inherited some supporters of Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, who quit the presidential race and endorsed Huckabee. Furthermore, Huckabee's moderate stances on economic issues, and his social conservatism, may find an audience in Michigan.


No mention of internet darling Ron Paul.