Sunday, January 13, 2008

But if you could vote...

OK, I'm back. Computer go "boom". Buy new computer today. Hasta la Vista, baby!, because that is the OS they all come with nowadays. So far so good, everything has loaded very smooth and is working. And it's fast. Good for me.

I'm just now catching up on the news from the past few days. All I saw on the TeeVee during the time I was down were the Republicans running all over the state, of course, and the results of the EPIC poll that showed a virtual dead heat at the top of the race there.

No news on the Democrats to speak of, either on local or the cable news networks. A brief mention here and there; I wasn't watching all that closely either because I wanted a break from all of this. (and you know what? It was nice.) Anyway, I started to wonder if they had been polled... and the Freep had the answer.

Ann Selzer, who correctly predicted the margin of victory in the governor's race last year here in Michigan, and the Obama win in Iowa this year, did a poll for the Freep- and she did ask the question, "If you could vote for any of the Democrats currently running for president, for whom would you vote, if the election were held today?"

The answer surprised me.

If the other major contenders were on the ballot, Clinton still would win with 46% of the vote, the poll shows. Obama would receive 23% and Edwards would get 13%.

Go here for a breakdown of the numbers by age, gender, etc.

This is probably as close as we are going to get on the answer to the question of "what might have been".

For the Republicans- Selzer gives the nod to Romney by 5 pts, and shows very little Democratic crossover. If they do, they show them going to McCain- and it remains to be seen whether the "Markos factor" will come into play. He's got FOX in a snit, that's for sure, and that's always fun.

Republican malaise seems to be playing a factor also. Nolan Finley is just hoping someone will cry, and cites the EPIC poll when he says-

Of particular note in the poll is the lack of passion for the contenders. Just 55 percent of voters say they are fully committed to the candidate they favor today.

Selzer backs that up. Poor confused Republicans.

But Romney's lead could evaporate, depending on how tentative, undecided and uncommitted voters lean over the next two days. About 38% of voters who had a favorite said they might change their mind by Tuesday. Another 22% hadn't picked a candidate.

Republican race is anybody's guess. According to USA Today, Romney and McCain went negative on each other today- that may have some bearing, but it's probably too late to sway anyone. For the Democrats, it appears that Clinton would have won anyway.

But after NH, do you really believe polls anymore?