Monday, July 21, 2008

New EPIC Poll: Obama 43, McCain 41

We all know these polls don't mean much at this point in time, but what the heck, someone is paying big money to conduct them and the least we can do is have some fun. Plus, people like to make little charts and stuff, and this gives them a place to put all the dots.

WOOD puts the whole script online - very important to see how these questions are worded because sometimes it does make a difference in answers. 600 "likely voters" were asked-

In the election for President, if the election were held today, would you vote for [ROTATE] John McCain the Republican, Barack Obama the Democrat, Ralph Nader the Independent, or Bob Barr the Libertarian?

40% Vote for Barack Obama the Democrat
3% Lean toward Barack Obama
43% Total Obama

38% Vote for John McCain the Republican
3% Lean toward John McCain
41% Total McCain

2% Vote for Ralph Nader the Independent
1% Lean toward Nader
3% Total Nader

2% Vote for Bob Barr the Libertarian
0% Lean toward Barr
2% Total Barr

12% Undecided/Don't know/Refused

I like looking at the favorable/unfavorable/don't recognize numbers myself.

Bush: 35% favorable, 61% unfavorable. No surprise there. Granholm: 49% favorable, 45% unfavorable. You go governor! But wish that number were higher. Obama: This is where it gets interesting. 3%, likely voters mind you, don't recognize his name. 51%-37% are the totals , but his "very favorable" numbers are 10 pts higher than McCain. McCain holds a gerneral lead in favorables, 58%-32%.

Other questions in the poll: Levin is stomping Hoogendyk 58-32. 87% of the people don't know who Hoogendyk even is, but some will vote for him anyway. Tribalism in action.

The poll also asks the generic who will do a "better job" on various issues - Obama seems to win on all domestic issues, McCain on war, terrorism and taxes. Natch. They also ask about race and age, and that is pretty much split as to whether either of those will be a factor in a voter's final decision.

There you have it, your "snapshot in time" for July 21st, 2008.

UPDATE: After I posted this, I wandered over to the Freep where they are reporting that the Reform Michigan Government Now prop has a whopping 70% approval rate - 73% amongst Republicans. Guess that "sinister Democratic plot to take over government" spin hasn't sunk in yet - or maybe it has. ;-)