Tuesday, October 31, 2006

New EPIC Poll 10/31: Granholm 52%, DeVos 42%

Last EPIC poll: JMG 48%, DDV 43%. A five point swing.

Are we having fun yet?

You should have heard Rick Albin (via Sarpolus) trying to spin it like all the undecideds would break for Dick, meaning it might only be a four point lead. Or something like that.

Breakdown of the script is here.

GRAND RAPIDS - With one week to go before the midterm election, a new EPIC-MRA poll shows that Governor Jennifer Granholm has opened a 10-point lead over her Republican challenger Dick DeVos.

When you eliminate the "leans", the numbers look even better.

When asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 48 percent said Granholm, with another 4 percent leaning her way. DeVos was the choice of 36 percent, with another 6 percent leaning toward him.

Once again, Stabenow is cruising.

Her overall lead against GOP challenger Mike Bouchard has grown to 14 points, 52-38.

Prop 2 is all over the place. This is scary and sad.

The biggest shift in the past week has been on Proposal 2, the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative. The proposal to ban affirmative action for public employment, education and contracting is now favored by a 49-42 margin. Last week, it was opposed 44-40. The undecideds have dwindled from 16 percent to 9 percent.

And Prop 5-

Proposal 5, the effort to establish mandatory school funding levels, still holds a slim two-point lead, 42-40. But 18 percent remain undecided.

It seems to me that all the other polls have shown undecideds and independents breaking for Granholm. Sarpolus thinks otherwise.

Sarpolus also expects the bulk of the undecided voters (6 percent) to go to the challenger DeVos. Because of that, everyone expects the race for governor to go down to the wire.

Maybe traditionally it has been that way, but given the anti-Republican mood of the country I think it will be different this year. Still, make sure you get everyone you know out to vote. It's crucial, and besides, it's the right thing to do.